The Race for Next Generation Submarines - Ageing Fleets, Innovation, & Undersea Dominance

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Nuclear powered submarines are often among the most complex and expensive systems ever fielded by any military. However, for decades, they (and less expensive conventionally powered designs) have been considered a cornerstone of naval power by many navies because of the unique capabilities they offer.

With new anti-submarine threats emerging, from new sensors to unmanned systems, many nations are now preparing to design and produce a new generation of submarines to answer those threats, leverage new technologies, and keep up with international competitors.

Today, we take a look at that emerging development and construction race.

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Reading and Sourcing (to be updated 05/08 due to late release):

Unless otherwise noted - platform counts are usually as per MB2024

RUSI - The Yasen-M and the future of the Russian Submarine Force
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/rusi-defence-systems/yasen-m-and-future-russian-submarine-forces

GAO - Weapon Systems Annual Assessment 2023
https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-23-106059.pdf

CRS - Navy Force Structure and Shipbuilding Plans: Background and Issues for Congress
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/RL32665.pdf

CBO - Analysis of the USN 2024 shipbuilding plan
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59708#:~:text=The%202024%20plan%20reflects%20the,ships%20(see%20Table%203).

USNI - Lieutenant Commander Patrick Rawlinson, U.S. Navy - Torpedoes: Get Smaller to Think Bigger
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2024/march/torpedoes-get-smaller-think-bigger

USNI - Russia’s Kilo-class Submarine: Improved And More Deadly Than Ever
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/august/russias-kilo-class-submarine-improved-and-more-deadly-ever

Emma Salisbury - The sinking submarine industrial base
https://warontherocks.com/2023/10/the-sinking-submarine-industrial-base/

Reporting on SSN(X)
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/05/u-s-navy-outlines-the-next-generation-attack-submarine-ssnx-program/

CRS on SSN(X)
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11826

Reporting on large-diameter submarines
https://news.usni.org/2023/11/08/navy-mulling-large-diameter-subs-hulls-after-12-columbias-ssnx-requirements-due-next-year

Submarine industrial base council - VPM
https://submarinesuppliers.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Virginia-Payload.pdf

Reporting on UK navy Sub-drone teaming
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/12/01/uk-navy-to-take-drone-teaming-operations-underwater-with-new-submarine/

Japan issues military equipment wishlist
https://news.usni.org/2023/01/25/japan-issues-military-equipment-wishlist-that-includes-hypersonic-weapons-unmanned-systems

Japan commissions first of new submarine class
https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2022/03/10/japan-commissioned-first-of-new-submarine-class/

USNI - GAO on shipyards
https://news.usni.org/2024/05/07/gao-tells-senate-panel-u-s-shipyards-are-major-readiness-concern

TASS - Mozhaisk diesel-electric submarine joins Navy
https://tass.com/defense/1712845

RIA Novosti on Husky and Kalina
https://vpk.name/en/543537_the-central-design-bureau-rubin-presented-to-the-ministry-of-defense-several-projects-of-submarines-of-the-fifth-generation.html

Restart of Mk48 production
https://seapowermagazine.org/rear-adm-perry-first-new-production-mark-48-torpedoes-set-for-2022-delivery/

Image used for Surrogat-V
https://en.topwar.ru/200663-anpa-surrogat-v-novyj-variant-mnogoobeschajuschej-koncepcii.html

Spearfish Mod 1 goes into service
https://www.navylookout.com/spearfish-mod-1-torpedo-goes-into-service-after-final-trials-by-hms-audacious/

Very light weight torpedo image
https://www.northropgrumman.com/what-we-do/sea/manufacturing-the-very-lightweight-torpedo

USNI - First Columbia Class Ballistic Missile Submarine begins to take shape
https://news.usni.org/2022/03/08/first-columbia-ballistic-missile-submarine-begins-to-take-shape

Reporting on RAPTOR
https://www.twz.com/sea/navy-wants-a-cheap-heavy-torpedo-that-can-be-stockpiled-fast

Arctic Class SSBN concept
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/08/russia-reveals-radical-new-stealth-missile-submarine/#prettyPhoto

Caveats & Comments:
All normal caveats and comments apply. In particular – I would like to note as always that this material has been created for entertainment purposes and is not intended to be a complete or comprehensive examination of the topic in question and should not be relied upon to inform financial or other similar decisions.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:00:42 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:05 — The Push For A New Generation
00:07:43 — Next Generation Technologies
00:18:34 — The US Submarine Fleet
00:35:22 — The Russian Federation
00:55:14 — Japan
01:03:53 — Risk & Drawbacks
01:06:01 — Channel Update