Small Drones & Loitering Munitions in Ukraine - The terrifying rise of cheap precision

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Description:
While the news often focuses on the role of large, expensive systems in the Ukraine war (think of the attention given to tanks, aircraft, or MLRS and SAM systems in recent weeks and months) some of the most omnipresent and disruptive systems have actually been terrifyingly cheap and accessible.

Off-the-shelf commercial drones converted for military use have been deployed by the truckload, while some of Russia's more successful weapons have been comparatively cheap loitering munitions and kamikaze drones like the Iranian Shahed and Russian Lancet. Videos of equipment destroyed by drones that might cost a thousandth of the price have become image of the war across social media.

In this video, I examine the use of these (often civilian) systems in the war in Ukraine, look at international developments, and ask what lessons we can take from the terrifying rise of cheap sensor and cheaper precision on the battlefield.

Patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/PerunAU

Caveats and corrections:
I mispronounce "Shahed" on several occasions

I refer to the Mavic 2 and 3 together - they are not comparable, with the 3 being far more common as a drone supplied to lower level units in Ukraine

I call the Norwegian Black Hornet Drone Danish (big oof)

I refer to to the saturation of drones across the front - I should clarify that the reporting on that point is anecdotal and may only relate to specific sections of the front where drone activity is that its most dense.

I also wish to be clear that I do not at all endorse the modification or use of drones for purposes other than those legally allowable in your jurisdiction.

Sources & Further reading:
(To be further updated 24 hours post release)

RUSI - Preliminary Lessons in Conventional Warfighting from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine: February–July 2022
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/preliminary-lessons-conventional-warfighting-russias-invasion-ukraine-february-july-202

JOINT AIR POWER COMPETENCE CENTRE (JAPCC) - A Comprehensive Approach to Countering Unmanned Aircraft Systems
https://www.japcc.org/books/a-comprehensive-approach-to-countering-unmanned-aircraft-systems/

JAPCC - Denial of Spectrum Denial
https://www.japcc.org/essays/denial-of-spectrum-denial/

Department of Defense Announces Successful Micro-Drone Demonstration
https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/1044811/department-of-defense-announces-successful-micro-drone-demonstration/

UK on drone developments
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/07/14/royal-air-force-chief-says-drone-swarms-ready-to-crack-enemy-defenses/

My thanks to those in Ukraine and elsewhere who consulted in relation to this episode.

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — OPENING WORDS
00:01:23 — WHAT AM I TALKING ABOUT
00:04:09 — MEET THE UAS
00:04:17 — Classifying Drones
00:07:59 — Another Take On The Divide
00:08:32 — SYRIA AND THE DONBAS
00:09:53 — The War In The Donbas
00:11:54 — WEAPONS OF THE UKRAINE WAR
00:12:15 — "Mavics"
00:13:47 — Thermal & Heavier Drones
00:15:25 — Loitering Munitions
00:16:23 — "FPVs"
00:18:03 — CAUTION AND CAVEATS
00:18:13 — A Very Public Side Of War? 00:19:03 — Publication Biases
00:20:06 — Security & Secrecy
00:21:13 — A Personal Warning
00:22:13 — DRONE USAGE
00:22:18 — Employment At All Levels
00:23:17 — Reconnaissance
00:24:55 — Artillery Correction
00:27:30 — Coordination
00:28:41 — Strike Role
00:34:18 — Whet It Goes Wrong - RU & UA Drops
00:36:11 — Fear & Isolation
00:38:07 — THE RUSSIAN EXPERIENCE
00:40:33 — LOITERING MUNITIONS
00:40:43 — The Lancet Threat
00:41:35 — The Shahed Campaign
00:42:22 — Ukrainian Loitering Munitions
00:43:09 — LOGISTICS & SUPPLY
00:43:18 — The Role Of Volunteers
00:44:35 — Artisanal Work At Industrial Scale
00:46:15 — COUNTERS & EFFECTIVENESS
00:47:23 — Electronic Warfare
00:48:51 — New Problems, Old Solutions
00:49:54 — The Very Old (and Odd)
00:51:34 — Counter-operator Operations
00:52:39 — GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS
00:52:55 — Tactical Tools
00:53:54 — Swarm Technology
00:55:27 — Deployability
00:56:02 — Networking And Going Solo
00:57:15 — A THREAT PROFILED
00:57:22 — Extreme Accessibility
00:58:18 — The Shot Exchange Problem
00:59:16 — Nowhere To Hide
01:00:07 — LESSONS & NEXT STEPS
01:00:17 — The Battle For Awareness & Precision
01:01:24 — Availability & Attritability
01:03:25 — The Drones Will Get Better
01:04:12 — Need For Efficient Countermeasures
01:05:08 — Training & Doctrine
01:06:19 — Evolving Threats
01:06:57 — CONCLUSIONS
01:07:41 — CHANNEL UPDATE