Russia's next target in Europe: Norway’s Svalbard Archipelago

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Moscow may target Norway’s Svalbard archipelago, also known as Spitsbergen, in its first direct attack on a NATO country. The ambiguity surrounding Svalbard’s status within the Alliance could divide NATO on whether a Russian move would trigger Article 5, the collective defense clause.
Moscow’s interest in Svalbard, a demilitarized region, has grown because of Norway’s imposition of sanctions, global warming, and Russian concern about defending the western entrance to the Northern Sea Route.
Russian interest in the area has intensified because China has joined Russia in using Svalbard for research, access to Svalbard’s coal has become more important, and a vast privately owned parcel of land is now for sale.
Paul Goble, a former US State Department expert on the countries of the former USSR and ex-CIA analyst, provides a detailed explanation in an article for The Jamestown Foundation.
Given Moscow’s aggressive rhetoric about NATO and threats to attack one or more of its members if the West continues to support Ukraine, many in Russia and the West have been speculating about where such a Russian move might occur. Most have focused on Poland, the Baltic countries, and Finland as possible targets, but perhaps the most likely one is elsewhere: the Svalbard archipelago. Svalbard is part of Norway, a NATO member, but is demilitarized by the provisions of the 1920 Svalbard Treaty, which has currently been signed by 46 countries, including the US, Norway, and France. Because of that agreement, NATO remains deeply divided as to whether, in the case of a Russian attack, all the members of the alliance would want to invoke the provisions of Article 5 of the NATO charter, which requires alliance members to view an attack on one as an attack on all. That division, of which Moscow is well aware, may lead the Kremlin to decide that an attack on Svalbard is less risky than an attack on any other NATO country. The island has fewer than 3,500 residents, of whom approximately a fifth are Russians and a handful are Chinese.
Because of its isolation, Svalbard was one of the last European territories whose status remained undefined into the 20th century, with various countries, including Norway, Sweden, and Russia, using it as a base for shipping and mining and even claiming it as their own.
In 1920, however, the Western powers, without Russia’s participation, signed a treaty that declared that Norway had sovereignty over the islands but required that Oslo kept the archipelago demilitarized and permitted the development of other national communities, including, most prominently, the Russians.

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