Extreme Pressure Build Up: 10 Million Cubic Meters Of Magma, Iceland KayOne Volcano Eruption Update

Landrise still measures up to Svartsengi, but there are indications that it has slowed down in the last few days.

Despite the land subsidence, model calculations show that magma accumulation under Svartsengi continues at a similar rate as before. It indicates that pressure is increasing in the magma chamber.

The total volume of magma under Svartsengi since March 16 is estimated at over 10 million cubic meters.

In the last two weeks, the average flow of lava from the crater, which is still erupting, is about a third of the average flow in the first half of the month.

Measurements and model calculations indicate that there is considerable uncertainty about the future, but it is likely that it will soon lead to news and the power of the eruption on the Sundhnúks crater series could increase.

Risk assessment updated. The risk of lava flow has been increased, but the risk of eruption has decreased.

The eruption at Sundhnúk continues and lava flows to the south from the crater, just like recently. The southern part of the lava bed continues to thicken where lava flows in closed channels. On Saturday, April 27, a small lava tongue crossed a dike east of Grindavík. No more lava has crossed the dike since then.

The image measurement team of the National Institute of Natural Sciences (NÍ) and Landmæringi Íslands (LMÍ) has been processing satellite images and data since April 25. The area of ​​the lava bed that has formed in the eruption is now 6.16 km 2 and is almost unchanged between measurements. However, the volume and thickness of the lava bed continues to increase and the volume is now 34 ± 1.9 million m 3 and the average thickness of the lava bed is 5.5 ± 0.3 m.

Based on these results, the estimated average lava flow in the eruption between April 15 and 25 is 0.9 ± 0.4 m 3 /s. In previous measurements of the average lava flow for the period from April 3 to 15, it was estimated at 3 to 4 m 3 /s.

still measures up to Svartsengi, but there are indications that it has slowed down in the last few days. At the same time, eruptive turbulence has shown a slight increase and microseismic activity has temporarily increased in the Sundhnúks crater series, although there are indications that the land giant is slowing down, model calculations show that magma accumulation under Svartsengi continues at a similar rate as before. The total volume of magma that has accumulated under Svartsengi since the eruption began is estimated at over 10 million cubic meters. The fact that the land giant is slowing but that magma continues to flow into the magma chamber indicates that pressure is building up there.

Measurements and model calculations indicate that there is considerable uncertainty about the future, but it is likely that it will soon make headlines. If magma accumulation continues, it is more likely that the power of the Sundhnúks crater series will increase significantly rather than that it will subside. Based on the latest measurements, however, it is difficult to say which of the scenarios below is more likely

New fissures open in the area between Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell and/or the existing fissure expands due to a sudden increase in lava flow that could be comparable to the initial phase of the last volcanic eruption in the area. It could happen with very little or no notice.

It is also possible that magma flow from the magma chamber under Svartsengi to the active crater on the Sundhnúks crater series will gradually increase until there is a balance between the inflow of magma into the magma chamber and the outflow from there to the surface.

Today's weather forecast is for a northerly direction (Tuesday) and gas pollution is moving to the south and there could be pollution in and near Grindavík. Lows tonight and then pollution could accumulate near the eruption sites. Turns to the west tomorrow (Wednesday) and southwest in the afternoon. Gas pollution travels to the east at first and could occur at the South coast, but later to the north and northeast and pollution could occur in the Höfúðborg area, Vogur and the Vatnsleysu coast. You can follow the gas distribution forecast here .

Risk assessment updated

At the Norwegian Meteorological Agency's scientific meeting this morning, the risk assessment was reviewed. The changes are in the risk assessment that the risk due to pyroclastics has been reduced from a considerable risk to low in areas 1 and 6. This change is made because there has not been much pyroclastic release into the atmosphere. The risk in area 4 (Grindavík) has been increased from moderate to high due to lava flow, as the lava tongue has been growing, albeit slowly, within the area in recent days. This means that the overall risk in zone 4 goes from considerable (orange) to high (red). In addition, there is an increased probability that it will soon lead to news in the area around Sundhnúki, and it is estimated that it is more likely than before that lava can flow quickly to the south.