EU LIBE delegation visit Latvia and Lithuania to raise issue of humanitarian corridor for Ukrainians

The European Union is preparing for “millions” more refugees fleeing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson said on Tuesday. Johansson said it was difficult to estimate precisely how many refugees could stream through EU borders after Russia invaded Ukraine last week, after more than 400,000 had come through so far.
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Many of those fleeing have met long waits at crossings into Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, the EU states bordering Ukraine.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent political shockwaves across the world. And while it is Ukrainians who are currently bearing the greatest costs of war, the reverberations of those shockwaves are felt acutely in the Baltics. Former Soviet Republics themselves, Russia’s revanchism in Ukraine and invocation of historical dominion over the country as pretext, touches at the very core of Baltic anxieties about their own security and sovereignty. As a result, the United States is closely eyeing the next potential fault line between Russia and the West that has the potential to trigger an even greater conflagration with the Kremlin. While Russia continues its assault on Ukrainian cities, NATO, and the United States in particular, is pouring additional military equipment and troops into the eastern flank – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania’s security cooperation partnership with the United States is based on post-Cold War realignments. In the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s disintegration, the United States sought to expand NATO membership eastward, hoping to both cement its leverage in Europe and develop influence with emerging former Soviet satellites. The decision was hotly debated, and had notable opponents, including the architect of Cold War containment, George Kennan. Nevertheless, over the course of the 90’s and early 2000’s, NATO extended across the former Iron Curtain, and in 2004, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were among a cohort of six countries to join the alliance.

NATO’s expansion across the former Soviet Union has historically gnawed at Russia and has fueled rising tensions between Moscow and the West. That the Baltics are former Soviet Republics, share a border with Russia, and are now NATO members has thrust the region into the frontline of the West’s tense standoff with Moscow, and has catalyzed a significant expansion of U.S. arms transfers to the three countries. Most importantly, these frontline states enjoy protections under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, meaning any attack on the Baltics would trigger mutual defense guarantees that could put the United States in a position of active hostilities with Russia.
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Despite mutual defense guarantees under the NATO treaty, security analysts have noted that a concerted military effort by Russia could cut off the Baltics before reinforcements or meaningful assistance could arrive from the West. Accordingly, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have placed increasing emphasis on developing their own defense capabilities and, since the end of the Cold War, have primarily relied on the United States for the technical and financial support to do so.

Between FY2010 and FY2021 Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia received at least $684 million in U.S. security assistance, principally through the State Departments Foreign Military Financing Program and the Defense Department’s Section 333 Train and Equip authority. The split of the assistance between the countries is relatively even – at least $203 million for Estonia, $232 million for Latvia, and $248 million for Lithuania.