05.07.2022: Norway strikes to add to supply woes. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB.

The start of Norwegian offshore oil and gas workers' strike had almost no impact on oil prices. Although oil and gas output in Norway has already decreased by 15% and 25% respectively, the quotes continue to trade around $113 per barrel. So far, the strike has curtailed oil production off only at three fields. If the strikers' demands are not met by their employers, the stoppage will be extended to three other fields on July 9.
Notably, Norway's export volume of oil has reduced in recent years. This is due to the fact that oil from most of the largest deposits has already been extracted, whereas the country has not yet discovered the new ones. In addition, the market is already preparing for a global energy crunch. Moreover, Norwegian oil and gas went exclusively to the European market. That is why the strike only affected prices within Europe. Nevertheless, if talks between strikers and their employers do not reach a compromise in the shortest possible time, the strike will not only drag on but also expand. This in turn will have an impact on global prices. It turns out that the oil market now has more upside potential.According to the trading chart, oil prices bounced off the area of $108 per barrel on Monday, adding about 1.5%. Interestingly, the quote has been trading in the 108/120 range for the second week in a row. At the moment, the quote is heading for the upper boundary of this range.Meanwhile, gold is trading above $1,800 per ounce. It can be seen from the trading chart that the asset is trying to break through the psychological level but with no signs of further growth. The metal has faced the variable resistance level of 1,815, which led to stagnation in the area of 1,805/1,814. Apparently, the quote has entered an accumulation zone, which may allow the market to build momentum. In this situation, the best tactic is to trade with a view to breaking through one or another boundary of the range (1,805). The outlook for the yellow metal is gloomy. Indeed, due to extremely high inflation, which is still mounting, the European Central Bank will certainly tighten monetary policy at a faster pace than expected. This will result in even greater capital outflows from the gold market to the government debt one. Speaking of the Russian currency, market participants are still waiting for the Bank of Russia to make further steps to ease its monetary policy. These expectations are the main factor contributing to the ruble’s continued decline. However, its current dynamics are due solely to verbal interventions on the part of the Ministry of Finance and the regulator. If they do not back up their words with concrete actions, the market will most likely reverse. From a technical point of view, the dollar/ruble pair changed direction after touching the psychological level of 50 rubles. As a result, the price pulled back, thus boosting the volume of long dollar positions. Now everything depends on fundamental factors. Technically, the most likely scenario suggests a correction to at least 60-65.

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00:00 INTRO
00:22 OIL
00:53 ЕU
01:31 BRENT
01:48 GOLD
02:24 QUOTES
02:45 BOR INTEREST RATE
03:18 USD | RUB